On behavioral finance, narrative economics, and the many ways in which confidence and competence fail to overlap.
Every generation encounters moments so powerful they blur the line between reality and fantasy. The meme stocks that gripped the equity markets in late 2020 and early 2021—AMC, GameStop—were one of those periods. A financial circus fueled by hope, greed, and the allure of fast money.
The narrative is simply the way we tell each other stories—and it forms the water in which we navigate market behavior. For most of our existence, we lacked the tools to measure it, nor did we realize it even existed despite its omnipresence.
Investing in the markets, much like poker, is part art and part science. Both skills are needed to improve the odds of success—and the data on where those odds are best may surprise you.
The impact of behavioral biases on financial markets has been well documented. But the whitepapers themselves may be creating biases of their own—a fallacy about how value investing actually works in the real world.
Innovation builds the future. Anxiety trades it. The AI boom is fully underway — but so is the fear. A hypothetical 2028 doomsday scenario briefly rattled markets. What history tells us about technological revolutions and the anxiety they always produce.
Quality outpaces junk over the long haul. Only 10% of small cap value managers are outperforming in 2025 — but history shows each period of underperformance has been followed by massive outperformance. Small caps entered a new cycle in July 2025.
Trump's tariffs signal a global trade inflection not seen since the 1940s. U.S. private investors now hold 44% of federal debt — more than double their share two decades ago — as interest expense becomes the second-largest budget line item.
Year-end 2024 review of sector dynamics, valuation trends, and the evolving risk/reward landscape for small and mid cap equities heading into 2025.
June 2024 edition: public debt surges to 121% of GDP, Wall Street gets earnings right but price targets wrong 79% of the time, and global fertility rates signal a decades-long demographic headwind.
Year-end 2023 edition: central bank gold accumulation, $9.2 trillion in stocks trading above 10x price-to-sales, housing ownership gaps across generations, and the Fed narrative shifting dovish heading into 2024.
Our inaugural semi-annual visual guide to the macro forces shaping small cap markets — inspired by William Playfair's 18th-century insight that complex information is best conveyed through pictures.