Research & Publications
Two decades of published thought leadership on behavioral finance, narrative economics, and the quantitative mechanics of small cap investing. All papers available for download.
Thought Leadership Papers
The Power of Narratives: How Stories Shape Investor Behavior
The third installment in Foundry Partners' investment process series. Explores how NLP tools can map narrative sentiment, with case studies on inflation (2020–2022), the credit crisis, and oil markets.
Weighing Risk & Reward: The Intersection Where Art Meets Science
A quantitative study of hit rates and severity odds across small cap sectors over 20+ years. A Value, Momentum & Quality (VMQ) screen improves outperformance probability from 47% to 52%+ while dramatically reducing negative severity.
Fear, Greed & the Whitepaper Expectation Fallacy
An examination of how behavioral biases—fear, greed, recency bias—drive small cap mispricings, and why the academic literature creates false expectations about when and how value investing should work.
Visualizing Market Dynamics
A recurring series tracking market trends, valuation dynamics, and macro forces relevant to small and mid cap equity investors.
VMD: Creative Destruction and the Age Anxiety of AI
Innovation builds the future. Anxiety trades it. The AI boom is fully underway — and so is the fear. A hypothetical 2028 doomsday scenario briefly rattled markets. Schumpeter's creative destruction, the cybernation revolution of 1964, and what history tells us about technological anxiety.
VMD: Are We Seeing The Return of Irrational Exuberance?
Quality outpaces junk over the long haul. Despite periodic junk rallies driving small-cap active manager underperformance in 2025 (only 10% of value managers beating YTD), historical cycles show each underperformance phase has been followed by massive outperformance. Small caps entered a new outperformance cycle in July 2025.
VMD: Today’s Economy & “THE MILKSHAKE THEORY”
Trump's tariff regime signals a potential inflection point in global trade not seen since the 1940s. U.S. private investors now hold 44% of outstanding federal debt—more than double their share two decades ago—while interest expense has become the second-largest federal budget line item.
VMD: Dopo la festa, mal di testa e tasche vuote
Year-end review of key market trends, sector dynamics, and the evolving risk/reward landscape for small and mid cap equities heading into 2025.
VMD: Stagflation, Stagflation, Stagflation!!!
Public debt has surged to 121% of GDP while private debt held steady. Small cap underperformance vs. large caps since the credit crisis is driven by multiple divergence, not earnings. Global fertility rates signal long-term demographic headwinds.
VMD: New Year's Resolutions and Markets
Year-end guide to market trends covering valuation, sector positioning, and the macro backdrop shaping small cap opportunities heading into 2024.
Visualizing Market Dynamics Inaugural
A data-driven guide to market trends covering volatility, sector behavior, and narrative signals relevant to small and mid cap equity positioning.
“The goal is to learn from these stories, to recognize and embrace the bullshit waters we swim in, and to establish a set of guiding rules to navigate this vast ocean of nonsense.”
— Mario Tufano, The Golden Age of Bull$hit